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Thursday, July 7, 2011

A Predictable Wall St. day...

Trader w glasses:  $50 to sleep with my wife; $45 to sleep with my sister
Others in Unison:  Buy!  Buy!  Buy!

Well the good ole' stock market went up 93 pts today based on nothing real-- again.   And why is it up?

Because of rosy job hiring projections for tomorrow when the monthly hiring report comes out.  See last month all the so-called 'experts' got severely burnt and were made to look like incompetant imbeciles because they had projected 200k+ job growth for May and the final figures ended up at +46k or thereabouts.

Talk about wrong, eh!

So the experts decided to dramatically lower their expectations (as A&G said they would in our recent posting 'July Dull Doldrums'), so they said to expect around 90k new jobs for June.   Its called 'covering one's ass'.   But its looking that tomorrow's report will be better.. I mean, how can it not when economists Cowardly predict 90k job growth, right.  But Wall St now expects 155k new jobs created, and that beats Intentionally low estimates of 90k, and anytime you Beat something, that's 'Umm Winning!', right??

Of course the economy needs to create 225k jobs a month minimum just to keep up with rising population, and like we demonstrated in an earlier "Quick Thoughts" headline, the only reason that the auto industry is making a comeback is because their union, the UAW sold their workers out guilt-free on a 50% reduction in starting salary of $14.50 among other concessions.

Shhh.. I know . I know.. I'm being a total buzzkill

So the market is going up based on a belief on increased jobs, and 'Happy Days are Here Again'.   Well- who's to say what these cockroaches on Wall St really think.  Its a rally so you just jump in and think later.

Yesterday I made brief mention of the National Federation of International Businesses's (NFIB) jobs report and outlook in one of my "Quick Thoughts" postings.  This was the report that Wall Street 'brushed off' and ignored yesterday.

Here's what it said:

New jobs are not to be found on Main Street. For small firms, reported job losses per firm declined sharply in June as did the net percent of firms that increased employment over the last 3 months. A seasonally adjusted net negative 7 percent of owners increased employment, a 4 point decrease from May.


“Seasonally adjusted, 9 percent of owners hired new employees last month, a 1 point decline from May, while 16 percent reduced employment, a 3 point increase. The remaining 75 percent of owners made no change in employment. Manufacturing was the only winning sector to post average positive net growth; but job losses were posted by firms in financial, non-professional services, construction, negating any gains made.

“The poor recovery in the jobs numbers is a result of very low housing starts activity and lagging expenditures on ‘services,’ both labor intensive industries dominated by small firms. The most recent reports on consumer spending show continued weakness (except paying more for food and gas) and housing starts show no hope for much job creation in construction.

“Overall, the June employment numbers quashed any hope of establishing positive trend in job creation. It was a serious reversal.”


So what happens tomorrow?  Well its set so that the traders and experts 'win'  If jobs reports comes back strong, everyone can scream 'recovery' until hoarse.  If the numbers truly end up around 155-175k new jobs, then markets and 'experts' can continue feeling smug though for real Americans, its bad.  And if the figures come back around 90k which is Terrible for the economy, the cockroach traders will shrug it off, and the economists can go "See, we told you 90k jobs".  

All bases covered.   That's how it works folks...



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