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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Default looking more & more likely

Very brief post..

Its looking more and more like all those politicians, bankers & financiers who negotiated for 12 hours in Brussels for a 2nd Greek bailout basically wasted their time, because it is looking more and more like the March 20th default for Greece is still on, and perhaps, may occur even sooner, if all things progress without any more Insipid meddling...

"Fitch (credit rating agency) said it was downgrading Greece to “C” from “CCC,” and would follow up with further downgrade to a “restricted default” when the (Greek) bond swap is completed.’" -- Reuters

So what does that mean?  The main bond swap is scheduled for March 10, and at that point, Fitch will name the event as a technical default. What is the ramifications for credit-swap insurance?  That’ll depend on what deal, say, Hedge Funds have signed with specific insurers.  But you could certainly speculate that some insurance will be triggered.

The downgrade is an early blow for those who put the Brussels accord together just 36 hours ago….and quite possibly a victory for others who always wanted it to fail.

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