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Friday, April 5, 2013

Weak March Jobs' Report & Fed's got all scenarios covered


 * The pics have nothing to do with the topic we're writing on.. Just felt like some Star Trek pics to liven things up..

Its Friday.. been a long week so we go right into it...

The Dow is down -111 pts as of noon..  OK, Good.. wish another '1' was added to make it a four-digit plunge but we're patient.. it will ultimately happen..

OK, so why is it dropping?

" Job creation slowed to a crawl during March, with the U.S. economy creating just 88,0000 positions though the unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent.  The number was a sharp slide from February's upwardly revised 268,000. "  (CNBC)

Honestly, we really don't think the Investors and traders really gave two spits about the Jobs report for March.. Just a nice excuse to cash in some profits which will Never Ever be circulated back into the Main Street USA economy Ever...
But the numbers are real..and terrible.. A quick look:

1)  268k minus 88k equals 160k.   The 'experts' were off by 160k jobs in their guessing based on their normal sampling of 1% of Corporate hiring.

It would be far too complicated a task to compute actual job creation or losses with smaller businesses, so they're always ignored when the Bureau of Labor Stats compiles its figures

2)  Unemployment "Dropped" to 7.6%  -- Thank God for those so discouraged from trying to find work, they've given up, ehh?  You can just roll them off the records like recently shot deer from the back of a Ford pick-up...

"The labor-force participation rate tumbling to a 34-year low of 63.3 percent.."

That's not good is it...
Wonder what the experts will blame this on?  The weather is always a convenient scapegoat-- Oh, no..we know.. we know..  'Teacher... Teacher... (hand raised)  OOOHh.  OOOhh..'

"Wall Street had been waiting to see how the mandatory spending cuts in Washington, known as the sequester, would affect the economy, and may have gotten at least a preview with the latest jobs data."

Ah-Hah!  Sequester.. we were going to say that...

Yes, that must be it... 4+ years of no one in government doing a single fucking thing to create a single real job while pushing the political hot-potato of re-financing the banks and stock market onto the Fed...

And they're going to blame it on 'sequester' which was a month ago..

Brilliant..
Here's an interesting part of the CNBC article:

"The central bank has tied the end of its zero interest rate policy to a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5 percent, but Friday's number showed that a falling level is not always a good economic omen. "

So let's say hypothetically, due to the statistical anomaly the unemployment rate eventually does fall to 6.5% because SO Many people have not found work..

Well, does that mean that despicable Bastard Ben Bernanke at the Fed will keep his word and begin to raise rates so savers can start to have something to live off of?  Or will he lie-- again?  Will he find some excuse or caveat to keep interest rates artificially low forever?

And here's the other side of the statistical anomaly 'coin' which that Evil, Evil man knows full well: Let's say there was True job creation.. 300-500k a month new employment openings...  Well what do you think happens to the unemployment rate at first?
Yes. it goes UP, not down...  Why?   Because when so many new jobs are created, it means many people who have jobs now which they may hate or pay poorly will quit and enter the employment pool.  And thus the figure goes up, up until there's a settling period which would take realistically a good 6-9 months based on consistent job growth.

So you see Bernanke covers his bets either way... No job creation and unemployment rate meanders at over 7%..  Truthful job creation and employment increases for 6-9 months before it begins 'falling' to under 6.5%

This gives Bernanke many Years of political cover to keep interest rates at zero or near zero.. And ultimately why?  Banks can borrow super cheap then speculate in market and it artificially keeps repayment on public debts relatively manageable.

Are you beginning to see how this con game is played?
~  So True!   Have a good weekend... ~waves