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Friday, July 5, 2013

June Unemployment, Market Manipulation & Slow Death of the Full-Time Job

Its Friday after a holiday..  Back to the skulldrudgery which is covering markets and finance but ultimately we don't mind...

Someone has to convey honesty to people...

So today the June jobs report figures were released and it shows 195,000 jobs were added last month and as of this writing and with unemployment unchanged at 7.6%, the Dow is at +91 (15,079)

Out of curiosity, what was unemployment six years ago, June 2007 back when that 'baddie' Bush was in office; the President that most of America loves to hate and pile on to...

4.6%
11.8 million "officially" out of work...  Its really closer to 16 million.

The last time unemployment was under 7% was November, 2008..  We think there was an election that took place around then..  memory is fuzzy...

So what to make of this?  Wasn't a strong report a sign the markets would drop because it would mean the Fed could taper QE with more political cover than before?

BTW, for those not interested in a detailed analysis of the ebbs and flows of a Deeply Corrupt market, this post may hold little interest to you and its OK if you want to go leave us to sip mai tais
Everyone else.. glad you stayed..

Now let's delve a little bit.

When the day began, the Dow was around 15,100..

When the announcement of the jobs report was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 10a, the market plummeted about 125 pts or so at the news so by 10:15a, it was at around 14,970...
They know tapering is on its way.. as early as September..

It stayed that way till noon then magically spiked exactly at noon by 120pts or so to hover back to where it started this morning...

Here's the chart so you can see for yourself:
See the dramatic drop around 10:10a...  See the dramatic spike precisely at noon?

So what caused the spike i.e confidence that QE would continue?

Actually-- nothing.

No piece of news has been released to cause the spike.

So we're left with two possibilities:
1) The Professional Investors and other scum took the time to break down the jobs report and realized it was actually not that great

2) Fed backdoor manipulation to artificially pump stock prices to restore overall confidence in the market going into the weekend.

Honestly, we think its choice #2, but let's pretend choice #1 is correct... why was June's report not as glowing as some may like it to be?

We'll put aside the (very important) fact that you need job growth of around 250k a month to simply keep up with population growth so 195k is just treading water...
Here's the specific break down to get to 195k new hires:

Part time jobs:  +360,000 jobs
Temp work:      + 75,000 jobs

Full time jobs:  -240,000 jobs

Add and subtract and you get +195k jobs in June..  Part time and temping

Looking back 2013 so far just 130K Full-Time Jobs have been added, offset by a whopping 557K Part-Time jobs. 
According to the Financial Times, the U.S. has shed nearly two million clerical jobs since 2007 while creating just 387,000 managerial positions, setting up a polarization in the labor market.

The average wage for a clerical job in 2012 was $34,410. But the positions that are being created in this economy – like a personal care aid – pay on average $24,550.

We're becoming a service economy...  Plenty of jobs to be found if you'd like to cook hamburgers, serve cocktails or wash hotel linens when not cleaning the toilets...

8.2 million people work part time right now and they're not teens doing summer jobs.. Teen unemployment is at a whopping 24%..  
One out of four can't even get hired flipping burgers... Those jobs are being held by graduates of 4-year colleges.

2.7 million work temp jobs  They get paid on average 25% less than full time workers who are directly hired by their employer.. 

So add p/t and temping work = 10.9 million

And Wall Street loves it..  Excellent for corporations' bottom line and shareholder dividends.. As long as people are still shopping and spending and putting it all on credit cards or taking out loans to survive, the Big Boys are Lovin' It...
Let's see... what else did the BLS report show...

Unemployment among blacks is at 13.7%

Last time under 10%?  Yep.. June 2007.. evil Bush

Some may not like the point we're making..  

Respectfully to those, it has to be made:  A black President in his 5th year in office has done virtually Nothing to help his people economically and yet over 97% of the black population love him to the point they'd willingly give up their lives to protect his...
Perception trumping reality..   Good news though.. three more years..

This entire 'recovery'... whether you believe it to be real or bullshit, has been orchestrated solely by the Fed.  The President has done virtually Nothing..  

No job creation bill has even been implemented in over two years.    Blame obstructionist Republicans all one wishes but not even an attempt has been made to debate and vote on legislation that will create new jobs and put people to work.
And all the President has to do is talk to the Senate Majority leader Harry Reid or House Minority leader Nancy Pelosi or one of a couple hundred other Congresspeople who are Democrat affiliated and say something to the effect "I want to create new jobs and I need you to write up the bill so I can work on drumming up support for it to pass"

Its OK to fail if a sincere effort is made.. the people will then know who's the party of action and who is the party of obstruction..

But nothing is being done by those who should be doing a lot.. 
So 100% of this utter charade of a recovery is being orchestrated by a Fed Chairman who doesn't have any worries about elections or legacies or Presidential libraries..

And most people are utterly clueless..  

They know something is wrong.. They know the quality of their lives are rapidly deteriorating but due to lack of understanding as to what's Not being done or refusal to give Reps any ammo for mid-terms, many loyalists keep quiet..
Its really funny and pretty pathetic...

Over half a million people will galvanize on the Ben Franklin Parkway in Philadelphia to see a free 4th of July concert as they did yesterday, and over 400,000 people will rise up and passionately defend a southern cook when wrongly terminated...

But when it comes to demanding jobs..   

Ehh..  

'When life gives you lemons, you better have a vendor's license...'