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Friday, August 2, 2013

July's Job Numbers or "Would you like Sweet & Sour with your McNuggets Sir/Miss?'

The first Friday of every month the jobs' report of the previous report is released..

The 'experts' predicted 185k new jobs

The reality was 162k... Unemployment dipped down to 7.4%

OK-- how to explain all this concisely.. What a task.. hmmm..
Let's start with the manipulation of expectations which we wrote about a couple weeks ago..

When the Big Boys want something mediocre to look better than it is, they use the economists on their payrolls to fudge expectations so the reality looks better than the prediction even though the reality is anemic to terrible...

When the Big Boys want something mediocre to look Worse for ulterior motives like to ensure more endless QE is poured into markets, they have their economists on their payrolls over-predict so figures look very bad and give political cover to other entities i.e. the Fed
So 185k new jobs predicted.. only 162k jobs created.. and Fed tapering of QE is expected not to begin any time soon...

OK, Next..  In June, according to the Bureau of Labor Stats. there were 195k new jobs added...  In July, 162k..  So that's a differential of -33,000 jobs in one month using simplest of math.

Before we continue, understand one should not be expecting jobs to be created when no one in positions of power and influence is creating those jobs everyone is hoping and wishing for.

If you want anything better than fast food, service industry or temp work, you best possess a lot of patience..  We do mean A Lot...
Let's continue.. As we at A&G like to do and which the media refuses, we break the numbers down...

162,000 new jobs in July divided by 50 US states equals...

3,240 jobs per state.  

Just picked from a hat, let's use North Carolina to continue this example.. There are 100 counties in NC
So 3,240 divided by 100 equals...

32.4... On average 32 to 33 new jobs were created in each county of N.C. for the month of July...

Wonder if its jobs like this:

"Tuesday morning (July 23) Walmart held a job fair looking for 85 new employees. The store will move from it's current location (Morgantown, N.C.) to the new shopping center just about a mile away. " -- WBTV.com

How exciting for them...
More nuts & bolts from the jobs' report...

Construction workers saw a month to decline in jobs by 6,000 workers..  Retail added 47,000 jobs. Leisure Industry workers rose by 23,000 and an additional 8,000 temps were hired.

Which of those four industries pays its workers the most?    Yep..

In terms of age demographics, 60% of all the new hires in July went to people 55-69 years old with no jobs.. yes Zero jobs to those between 16-19 years old.
We're sure a few squeaked in somewhere to flip burgers or mop floors but on the statistical percentage aggregate, it came out as 0% for July.

Next-- why did the unemployment rate drop to 7.4%??

1) The civilian labor force declined
2) The labor force participation rate (different from the previously mentioned civilian force) also declined
 In addition, the change in average hourly earnings dropped -0.1% on expectations of a 0.2% increase (so that's a downward adjustment of -0.3%)  and down from the 0.4% increase last month. (actually -0.5% downward)     

Thank those part-time jobs and your friendly neighborhood corporation.

And people will keep taking it... and taking it..

As long as there's credit cards or equity in the home to take out second mortgages with the purpose of biding time...
As long as there's all these social safety nets providing for so many utterly dependent and desperate...

As long as people still think their President or Governor or Mayor really cares for them because they share the same political affiliation, skin color or ethnicity...

As long as people still think good things will happen just around the corner, just you wait...

You will continue having a victimized populace who doesn't have the faintest clue of the damage being done to their way of life and of their children...