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Friday, March 14, 2014

The 'Why', 'Now' & 'What Next' of Russia, US, Ukraine & Crimea

We've been writing quite a bit lately on Russia, the Ukraine, Crimea and US response and quite honestly there's only a certain amount of news and back story one can absorb before their minds just tune out and go onto something else..

So in this post, think of it as a very concise, stream-lining of this whole situation:  the 'why', the 'now', and how we see things playing out.  This post may not be brief but it will be power-packed..
~ Crimea is located on the very southern tip of Ukraine

The 'Why'

This situation/confrontation between Russia and US originated right after the cold war ended i.e the former Soviet Union collapsed and broke into many various countries (circa 1989)..

NATO, taking advantage of this political disarray, expanded its membership to include many of these former Soviet states.   As one of the conditions for membership, NATO and the US specifically would be allowed to place weapons in their country..

Guess where those weapons are mostly aimed?    Yes, Russia
In the above map, all the nations part of NATO are in blue.    Russia is the massive nation to the far right in orange.  Ukraine is the country in the middle in yellow.

Notice that the 3 small nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are part of NATO.. they were part of the Soviet Union at one time and are now touching Russia's western border.

 Also notice Poland is now blue..  Even though there's a buffer country Belarus between Poland and Russia, missiles can easily hit their intended targets inside Russia if need be...

And Turkey has Russia surrounded on the south of the Black Sea

NATO i.e US wants Ukraine as a member and of course a new location to place missiles to hit inside the heart of Russia--  That's a bit too close for comfort as far as Russia and Putin is concerned
~ There are currently 63 countries with US military bases & troops (dark red)

Funny how back in 1962 we were willing to engage potentially in world war to prevent Cuba from possessing Soviet missiles 90 miles from Florida yet we don't see how surrounding another nation with our missiles might freak them out too..

Double standard anyone?

The EU also wants the impoverished country as a member so it can suck it further dry to generate needed funds to keep bailing out the PIIGS nations...

And when Ukraine can't pay, then the US controlled banks (IMF and World Bank) can give loans at crippling interest rates.. And when those loans can't be repaid, then the bankers can come in and privatize the nation..
And what does Ukraine have of value?

Oil and oil pipelines that connect the Middle East to Europe and Asia

Its all about money.. And fracking (creating fractures in rocks and rock formations by injecting fluid into cracks to force them further open. The larger fissures allow more oil and gas to flow out of the formation to excavate)

All the US oil companies are fracking in Poland currently..  They want Ukraine too.

And no one seems to care the US is opening the door to a Neo-Nazi political element potentially running the nation. They have a political party formed and have a candidate to run for election next month..   At the very least you're looking at Neo-Nazi representation in their legislature..

Just like currently in Greece with 'Golden Dawn' Party
~ Public Debt as a percentage of GDP: 2014 forecast

The 'Now'

Secretary of State Kerry has issued some decrees..

First, that if the people of the Crimea who are mostly Russian freely choose to leave the Ukraine and be connected once more with their true home, according to Kerry, the world community will not give validity or acknowledgment

Funny how democracy only is respected in specific instances i.e when it is for our benefit

And this notion of shunning and ignoring a government.. Really what good does that do?

Look at Israel.. Practically every Middle East nation refuses to acknowledge their existence yet they've been around 66 years, receives aid and protection from the US and none of these destructively symbolic demonstrations of shunning mean a thing...
~ EU member states in blue, Eurasian Commission member states in Red; Ukraine in green

Then Kerry says there will be sanctions..

Ugh..  We already told you the repercussions and economic blowback which will affect the western world.. US will feel it.. Europe will get hit harder because Russia supplies most of Europe's petrol (gas) and it could provoke the first sincere challenge to the hegemony of the US dollar as the global reserve currency..

Without that dollar used as the backstop currency and as importantly, the currency in which oil purchases are made (petrol-dollars), all we are as a nation is mere peacock pomp.
~ Gas pipeline map -2003

The 'What Next'

If Putin budges even an inch in a way that hurts his credibility at home, we'd be utterly floored..

As we wrote the other day, he's enjoying a popularity rating of around 72%, the highest its been Ever since he became leader of Russia...  And the popularity is Because of his actions in Ukraine and Crimea, not in spite of..

Remember what W. Bush's approval ratings were after 9/11?   It was around 92%..   The man could do anything then and no one said 'boo'.. And so he did..

So why is the US really interested in a brawl with Russia?
~ Gas pipeline map of Ukraine

Many small reasons that add up..

1)  Obama and Kerry really wanted to get into Syria and fight there but Putin was able to diffuse the situation so that the two inepts had slimy warm egg on their faces, and by extension the Saudis were Pissed because they were the ones behind the scenes pushing it...

2)  For 13 years we've been fighting ghosts.  Al Qaeda doesn't wear fancy uniforms with pretty buttons and brevets..  Doesn't have a specific address you can drone bomb to death or invade...   Just not 'fun' fighting them..

They fight too much like American Indians and it took the US around 120 years to fully conquer them.

Much easier to fight a nation.. especially an old cold war foe.

Notice how most villains in movies and TV shows are now Russian.. either government or depicting their Mafia..   Even a recent m&m commercial played upon it and snidely aired it repeatedly during the Sochi Olympics..
~ The Russian 'villain' is talking to a yellow m&m... how menacing..

We can't see any commercials of 'evil' Brazilians being shown in 2016 when the summer games are in Rio..

And because Russians are Caucasian and Christian, you can degrade and stereotype the hell out of them without fear of offending the Real enemy who will slit your throat in a second without blinking or remorse if you offend their God.

3)  Russia is an expanding economy.. the US is dying..

When financial news talks of the BRIC nations and predicts massive economic expansion as we continue through the 21st cent, what does that mean?  What is 'BRIC'?

Brazil, Russia, India and China..

Meanwhile our middle class has been dying a 43 year and continuing 'lobster in the pot' death,  unemployment is extremely high, we're a nation of sellers and consumers rather than creators, etc..
~ Kenneth Branaugh plays the Russian baddie in the very recent film 'Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit'..   Could have sworn al Qaeda was America's real enemy...

And America's true 'God'.. the 'Golden Calf' everyone bows down to is forever that G-D stock market.

So historically what happens when either a nation is on the decline or looking for respect as an up and comer?  They look to engage in war

Perfect example-- the Spanish American War in 1898..

US was then on the rise.. the dying Spanish Empire was looking for respect and hold onto the little global possessions it maintained..  So both happily went to war with one another..
~ Mickey Rourke as the "evil Russian" in Iron Man 2

Another example was 1982's Falkland Islands war..  Britain was the dying Empire who over the 35 years previous, gave up all their conquests in Asia, India. Africa and willing to fight and have men die over a piece of rock in the south Atlantic.

For Argentina, they thought they were up-n-comers and demonstrate to South America their military prowess vs England.

And that's really what we have now..

There's absolutely no reason the US should be involved in this except we meddle in everything and we have our hands in all the cookie jars..
~ Russian Mafia hood depicted in 'Batman: Dark Knight'

The Neo-Cons and CIA and various Presidential administrations of both political parties worked too hard to surround Russia like this to just pick up and leave..

And that's the best way we can try to explain what's going on free of the biases and media spin..  And believe us, the US media is spinning this as we're 100% in the right as furiously as Russian owned media doing the same for them..

Only thing is, in this specific instance they are right..

We came to the rescue of Texas in the mid 1840s..  Russia sees themselves coming to the rescue of their populace in Ukraine & Crimea..
~ Sec of State John Kerry..  What a man!

And so what happens next?

Well we kinda know don't we.

Funny how less than a year ago Putin was well liked in the US..  Remember the Boston Marathon bombings of April 2013??  Putin offered assistance in tracking the two brothers down (they were ethnic Chechens)-- one was killed, the other arrested..
From Huffington Post (4/16/2013):

Boston Bombings Investigation: Russia Offers Assistance In Explosions Probe -- "Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered his country's assistance in investigating bombings in Boston that killed 3 and injured more than 140 people.

Putin said in a condolences note published on the Kremlin's website Tuesday that the international community should come together to fight terrorism.  Putin said Russia "would be ready to provide assistance" to U.S. authorities with the probe into the bombings at the Boston marathon."

And now we're supposed to be enemies???   Why- because Obama and Kerry tell us so?

People got to start thinking for themselves..

There are Real enemies and there are contrived ones..  Learn the difference.