Search This Blog

Monday, June 29, 2015

"My Big Fat Greek Default"

The whole Greece situation makes us at A&G so G-D angry, its hard at time to compose oneself to compose a rational, non-ranting blog posting..

But we have written on them and the ultimate default that was forthcoming for about 5 years now!

And no one took us or anyone else seriously..  Amazingly even some Deeply stupid and overly-trusting Grecians waited until this past weekend to Finally start pulling money from their bank accounts..

And now the daily ATM withdraw limit is 60 euros/day which is the equivalent of withdrawing a little under $67 US currency.
Even if you do not live in Greece or think you're not affected because you do not use the Euro as currency, the Greek situation is akin to the 'canary' in the coalmine...

We are so angry because all that is happening now should have happened 5 full years ago when it was clear to anyone paying even the foggiest bit of attention that Greece was economically a deadbeat nation undeserving of ever being part of the Eurozone and could never get itself straightened out..

But at least a June 2010 default would have been easier on its people as it force-converted itself back to the drachma because at least back in 2010, the government had control of its railways and airlines and lottery and  historical treasures; all the things it gave away via privatization to buy more time

People want to know -- How did all this mess occur,.
The long and short is this:   Once upon a time you had a very heavily indebted, insignificant Mediterranean nation who wanted to swim in the same pool as Europe's economic big boys.

So with the assistance of GoldmanSachs, they transferred ALL their debts temporarily off their books and on to Goldman's to give the perception their economy was running in the black.

Those who did the checking and double-checking for the Eurozone were either successfully duped, or didn't care so ultimately this pauper nation was allowed entrance to the 'club'

And magically.. 'poof'.. All Greek debts were sent back to Greece with Goldman collecting their fee, and suddenly the EU went 'Sacre Bleu!' or whatever...
Everything since then has been a game to see who would flinch first.. Greece or EU and the banks and investors who were due to lose heavily from a full-blown default.

For five full years the EU and banks flinched because they were unprepared to deal with possible blowback or contagion issues.  As it was, the ECB (European Commonwealth Bank) had to borrow about a trillion dollars from the Federal Reserve a couple years ago just to stay afloat..

So now after a lot of back n forth chess maneuvering, Athens is at risk of defaulting on its €1.5bn IMF payment, with membership of the Eurozone hanging in the balance.
Of course, seeing how criminal and corrupt the financial system is, we will always expect some kind of 11th hour 'deal' or 'compromise' or can-kick 'event' to make everyone wipe their brows, go 'Whewww' and watch soulless investors push global markets higher

But since Greece is not France or Italy, two other economic deadbeat nations but with much larger GNPs, the EU and creditors are now willing to call Greece's bluff and push them to default or full economic concessions including a full raid on government pensions to use as partial repayment..

The creditors wanted Greece to cut pensions and raise taxes in ways that would only deepen one of the worst economic crises of modern times in a country where a quarter of the workforce is already unemployed

But what do soulless bankers and Investors care?
So the country is on economic lock down with banks closed, ATMs releasing next to nothing and people hoarding food, gas and medicines while stores shut down, as if one was battering down for a Hurricane or Snowstorm

And it makes us so G-D angry that this has to be happening in 2015 when the nation was far better prepared for this in 2010..

This is a perfect example of why if you are personally heavy in debt, you do NOT pay your creditors to your very last penny, but hide as much as you can then go bankrupt or 'default' on your debts when you still possess some kind of nest egg to survive the post-bankruptcy
Greece was 'Proud'..

They also wanted to keep having their cake and eating it too..

Now they're Fucked..

And the real question is whether this is an isolated incident like when puny Cyprus defaulted last year, whether it truly does spread to continental Europe but is contained, or whether this goes International..

Honestly no one knows because it hasn't happened before where one nation's default could affect whole nations' currency
Usually its like when Argentina defaulted in 2001.. only they suffered.other nation was tied into their Argentine peso so no other nation felt any real blowback.

There will be another economic crisis or financial meltdown..

Only a question of 'When'? and unlike in 2008, there's really little to nothing for anyone to do about it..

You can't lower interest rates to less than zero..
From TelegraphUK:

"The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises, the Bank of International Settlements has warned.

The so-called central bank of central banks launched a scathing critique of global monetary policy in its annual report. The BIS claimed that central banks have backed themselves into a corner after repeatedly cutting interest rates to shore up their economies.

These low interest rates have in turn fueled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates. 
The BIS warned that interest rates have now been so low for so long that central banks are unequipped to fight the next crises...

Policymakers in the eurozone, Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland have taken their interest rates below zero (negative interest) in an attempt to support their economies, contributing to a decline in bond yields"

So whether or not Greece gets Another last-second reprieve from Germany and the IMF, ultimately one of the 'plates' will stop spinning and will cause the others to topple..
The powers that be i.e. those who really control the US and the world from behind the scenes are hoping to delay the inevitable until after the 2016 election when the next President, old bitch Hillary or some Republican 1% tax-cutter will see their Presidency engulfed in Depression...

Or maybe it happens sooner?

What role if any will Greece play?  

We will sure know a lot more one way or another before the week has concluded...