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Thursday, July 16, 2015

Happy In-Dependence Day!

At some point Wednesday night, the Greek parliament voted, in a 229 for and 64 against landslide, to implement the austerity Europe demands to grant Greece the funds for Bailout #3 so that Greece can then repay European creditors.

The people of course chose by a 61% majority to tell Germany, the EU and the banks to go to Hades only 10 days ago; the choice to take some immediate pain through a Grexit vs more can-kicking followed by an ultimate default that will be even more painful..

But you know politicians and their constituents..  

Its like a parent asking a child what does he/she think about relocating to a new city or changing residential addresses..  Oh sure the parent will pretend the child has a say in the matter but everyone but the child knows he/she doesn't.
So what does all this Really mean?

Quite little really since pretty much everyone in the news who has claimed that a “Greek bailout deal has been reached”has spun a false narrative or in layperson terms, is lying.

Greece has NOT reached a bailout deal in any way shape or form.

What DID happen was Greece’s Prime Minister agreed to try and push a new austerity program through Greece’s parliament and a bunch of cowards agreed.
So thanks to the governmental surrender of autonomy to Germany and the banks, then NEGOTIATIONS can begin as to whether or not Greece should receive another bailout.

NOT a Deal..   just Negotiations...

Put simply, Greece agreed last night it will hand over assets worth 25% of its GDP to the EU which was merely a PRECONDITION at which time TALKS (again not a deal) COULD begin regarding a potential third Greek Bailout.

Also don't forget Germany -- their Parliament will have to provide a mandate granting Chancellor Angela Merkel the right to negotiate a new deal with Greece.   And bailing out deadbeat Greece is NOT popular with the German people..

Nothing is simply automatic here..
And even if Germany’s parliament issues this mandate that Germany can negotiate a new deal… the two countries STILL have to actually LITERALLY negotiate the deal.

And finally… even if they are able to agree on a deal (unlikely given that they were barely able to agree on anything during the most recent round of negotiations), Germany's Parliament has to sign off on it!!

See how this all works?
Greece sold its soul and political autonomy for nothing more than time because they will get JUST enough money to eventually keep their banks open and the basic economy running until the real deal is agreed or rejected.

The media has been promoting the claim that a deal was reached.

Nope..

A deal is not even close to occurring in any way shape or form. At the earliest, negotiations for a new bailout might BEGIN in a few weeks. At that point negotiations are likely to take another Four weeks.
In total, a deal will be reached in 6-8 weeks at the EARLIEST which is mid September if everything goes smoothly..

Stocks as they always do, have rallied based on a Lie, and if anything goes wrong in the numerous negotiations that have to occur in order for another Greek bailout to go through, the markets will tank.

So now Greece is under control of a 'troika' of the EU run by Germany, the ECB and the US-run IMF and there's about 315 million Americans who couldn't give a flying fig one way or another since it is, well 'Greece'..
Until the default is inevitable and their precious stocks and 401k's crash

And all the stupid people who look around like they did in 2008 and chime in unison..

"If only we had some warning!"