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Monday, August 17, 2015

8 Signs the Global Economy is on Weak Footing

Over the weekend I watched a baseball game, Seattle v Boston where ultimately the Red Sox scored 22 runs in a most lopsided victory.

So for fun and curiosity I watched the replay but via the Seattle feed so I could hear the announcers call the one-sided affair.

And wouldn't you know.. the broadcast booth shills; the hometown 'homers' refused to say a negative thing about the Shitty ballclub they had to cover.  No pointed criticisms of any player, the manager or team itself.. No venting.. Just treating all with faux positivity of 'We'll get em' tomorrow'

God I hate BS positivity!  
I also hate when media of any form mislead or outright lie to appease their masters or parlay the notion of focusing on the 'greater good'..

A very learned man once told me that if you want to know the unvarnished truth about the US when it comes to politics, the economy, Wall Street and/or the real economic state of the US citizen, Not ever expect to get it from a US media source.

American media for instance might be critical of a political party of a specific President in office but they are Never critical of America itself unless its some safe abstract like US slavery back hundreds of years ago.

Plus the worry if you print or say something that even remotely is treasonous (even if truthful and factually accurate), your press credentials and FCC license for visual/audio media will be rescinded.
Foreign media don't have that worry

Papers tilt left or they veer right..  Neither will ever write a word that causes the public to ever be alarmed or incite panic on anything.. Advertisers and the government doesn't like it

Both left & right schmooze with each other at the annual media clique known as the White House Press Correspondents' Dinner then spend the rest of the year trumpeting the economy based on the broken economic 'thermostat' known as the Dow.

No, when I want unvarnished truth I get my information from Asia, Russia, India, Brazil, Mexico and Britain
The reason is simple:  The President or Treasury Secretary or Fed Chair can call a publisher in the middle of the night and ask/Tell him/her to hold off or quash a story that might cause people to say pull their money out of banks by droves or provoke riots.

What does a newspaper in Japan or Britain care?   They will report a story and figure few outside their readership will see it anyway.

And among my favorite newspapers to read is Telegraph.UK

Concerning the US and Global economy, they warn today that "Time is now rapidly running out," as they take a deep dive into the dark realities behind the mainstream media headlines continued faith in central planning.
The paper goes on to warn that from China to Brazil, the central banks have lost control and at the same time the global economy is grinding to a halt. It is only a matter of time before stock markets collapse under the weight of their lofty expectations and record valuations.

Now we have been writing on this for a while..  Name one US newspaper or TV/radio news source that has presented anything but 'recovery' in the last 3-4 years?  

Even conservative media don't want to admit things are bad because their 1% benefit just as much as the Dem's 1% from inflated stock prices.

The reputable paper then goes on to list 8 signs that the economy is about to get a lot worse so be prepared.  Some of the terminology and concepts may be confusing but just follow the overall gist and ask yourself, would the Wall Street Journal write this?:
1 - China slowdown

"China was the great savior of the world economy in 2008... Now the Chinese economy has now hit a brick wall. Economic growth has dipped below 7pc for the first time in a quarter of a century, according to official data. That probably means the real economy is far weaker.

Data for exports showed a -8.9% slump in July from the same period a year before. Analysts expected exports to fall only -0.3% so this was a huge miss.

The Chinese housing market is also in a perilous state. House prices have fallen sharply after decades of steady growth. For the millions who stored their wealth in property, it makes for unsettling times."
2 - Commodity collapse

"The China slowdown has sent shock waves through commodity markets. The Bloomberg Global Commodity index, which tracks the prices of 22 commodity prices, fell to levels last seen at the beginning of this century.

The oil price is the purest barometer of world growth as it is the fuel that drives nearly all industry and production around the globe (multi-year lows at about $50 per barrel)

Iron ore is an essential raw material needed to feed China’s steel mills, and as such is a good gauge of the construction boom. The iron ore price has fallen to $56 US per ton, less than half its $140 per ton level in January 2014."
3 - Resource sector credit crisis

"Billions of dollars in loans were raised on global capital markets to fund new mines and oil exploration that was only ever profitable at previous elevated prices.

With oil and metals prices having collapsed, many of these projects are now loss-making. The loans raised to back the projects are now under water and investors may never see any returns.

Nowhere has this been felt more acutely than shale oil and gas drilling in the US. Tumbling oil prices have squeezed the finances of US drillers. 

Two of the biggest issuers of junk bonds in the past five years, Chesapeake and California Resources, have seen the value of their bonds tumble as panic grips capital markets.

As more debt needs refinancing in future years, there is a risk the contagion will spread rapidly."
4 - Dominoes begin to fall

"The great props to the world economy are now beginning to fall. China is going into reverse. And the emerging markets that consumed so many of our products are crippled by currency devaluation. 

The famed Brics of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, to whom the West was supposed to pass on the torch of economic growth, are in varying states of disarray.

The central banks are rapidly losing control. The Chinese stock market has already crashed and disaster was only averted by the government buying billions of shares. 

Stock markets in Greece are in turmoil as the economy grinds to a halt and the country flirts with ejection from the eurozone.

Earlier this year, investors flocked to the safe-haven currency of the Swiss franc but as a €1.1 trillion quantitative easing programme devalued the euro, the Swiss central bank was forced to abandon its four-year peg to the euro."
5 - Credit markets roll over

"As central banks run out of silver bullets then, credit markets are desperately seeking to reprice risk.

The London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), a guide to how worried UK banks are about lending to each other, has been steadily rising during the past 12 months. 

The essential transmission systems of lending between banks has begun to take the strain and it is quite possible that six years of reliance on central banks for funds has left the credit system unable to cope."
6 - Interest rate shock

"Interest rates have been held at emergency lows in the UK and US for around six years. 

The US is expected to move first, with rates starting to rise from today’s 0% - 0.25% around the end of the year. Investors have already starting buying dollars in anticipation of a strengthening US currency. UK rate rises are expected to follow shortly after."
7 - Bull market third longest on record

"The UK stock market is in its 77th month of a bull market, which began in March 2009. On only two other occasions in history has the market risen for longer. One is in the lead-up to the Great Crash in 1929 and the other before the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the early 2000s.

UK markets have been a beneficiary of the huge balance-sheet expansion in the US. 

US monetary base, a measure of notes and coins in circulation plus reserves held at the central bank, has more than quadrupled from around $800m to more than $4 trillion since 2008. 

The stock market has been a direct beneficiary of this money and will struggle now that QE3 has ended"
8 - Overvalued US market

"In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio – or Shiller CAPE – for the S&P 500 stands at 27.2, some 64% above its historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher – in 1929, 2000 and 2007."

Does this mean a crash is imminent?

Maybe?  Maybe not..

But it does mean if you did not know any of what was written here and you think yourself informed because you read and watch US news then well..  you're actually quite in the dark.