Search This Blog

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

An Out-Of-the-Box Election Prediction-Opinion

There's a famous and somewhat crass saying that 'Opinions are like rear ends... everyone has one'  (yes, we sorta edited the crudeness down a bit from the official saying).  And as such, everyone has opinions and thoughts on how they believe tonight's election results will conclude.

Most predictions are biased of course where 'their guy' wins... and some predictions can be a little clever-clever, like predicting one candidate will win popular majority but still lose the electorate which is ultimately what counts.

And who knows, by tomorrow those people could be well right..

But since we also possess rear-ends, that means we get to give an opinion as well.  And for 'fun' we're going out-of-the-box if you will and predict the election will not be officially over by Tuesday night.

We predict some little twist or kink to make this election go on a little longer than everyone wants, whether it be a circa-2000 situation where one state decides the whole election and teams of lawyers are sent in to judicate every ballot, or every vote is counted and neither candidate gets that magical number needed, which throws the decision to whoever is in the next session of the House of Representatives...
If a candidate felt the election was extremely close and he was getting squeezed out, there's many ways to nitpick and try to fight the results.  Whether it be the constitutionality of requiring ID cards at voting places (we have no opinion on this one way or another) or the fact that due to Hurricane Sandy, many people are still without as much as basic power to their homes and who knows how many of the polling places will be open for business.

It is interesting that in New Jersey, due to the storm's aftermath, voters are given the option of voting online.  We believe ultimately, that's going to be the wave of the future-- a system where nationally, people can have the option of online voting, or perhaps way down in the future it fully replaces physical polling stations altogether..

So that's our prediction/opinion as to how tonight will go-- no resolution and days or weeks of more nonsense before someone is declared a victor.  And of course there will be a lot of tension and frayed nerves along the way...

But for those who say we are chickening out by refusing to give a specific prediction as to 'Who' will win, we hear the 'bruk-brukkkss' and are so moved..
Whether it be a clean victory or what we stated above, we predict Mitt Romney will win the election and we base it on two words-- voter motivation.

When people are unhappy with a candidate... we mean deeply unhappy, they're much more likely to be galvanized to vote; to stay motivated enough to stand in long lines sometimes in wet or wintry conditions, just to ensure their vote is counted.

If you support the incumbent (speaking generally) but are not overwhelmingly enthused, or you live in a state that tends to vote the opposite party of your beliefs, you are less likely to go out of you way to vote.

Also during the last election, many were motivated to be a part of 'history' by voting the first black President into office.  And there was much rejoicing in this...and many commemorative plates, mugs and coins were sold in honor of such a milestone.

In 2012 its just an incumbent seeking to hold on...

Ever since the first Presidential debate that Obama flubbed big-time, people have seemed to open their eyes to, and embrace Romney.

Prior to that debate, we really thought we were seeing in Mitt another Bob Dole-like train wreck (he ran vs Bill Clinton in 1996 and was trounced badly).  But Romney's done a great job of building momentum and motivating both his base and independents to give him a a chance to lead.

And when you combine the large crowds which have been appearing at Romney rallies over the last few weeks with the spartan crowds for President Obama (for instance yesterday at a rally in Ohio which included Bruce Springsteen and rapper Jay-Z, the auditorium was only half-filled;  in 2008 there would have been people standing outside hoping to get in), we see Romney winning this election.

Now if we're wrong, we'll state so tomorrow..

After all as written previously, all opinions are like rear-ends except some are more shapely and toned than others...

Happy Voting!